Historically, significant shifts in the global order have also profoundly impacted Ethiopia’s internal order. In the early 20th century, one of the key factors contributing to Ras Teferi Mekonnen's (later Haile Selassie I) rise over Lij Iyasu was his alignment during the First World War. Lij Iyasu, as the grandson of Menelik II, was entitled to inherit the throne upon the emperor's death in 1913. However, while he was trying to make local and international alignments, he chose to be aligned with the Ottoman Empire, Germany, and Austria-Hungary (the Central Powers); in contrast, Ras Tafari, the great-grandson of Sahle Silassie, the grandfather of Menelik II, aligned with Great Britain, the Russia Empire, and France (the Allied Powers).
Lij Iyasu's perceived conversion to Islam and his connections with the Ottoman Empire and Somali nationalist leader Mohammed Abdullah Hassan, who resisted British and Italian colonialism, had concerned the Allied powers. They feared that his alliances could destabilize their colonies in the Horn of Africa and give the Central Powers a strategic advantage. Conversely, Ras Tafari’s strategic loyalty to the Allied Forces earned him the support of Britain and France, who viewed him as a counter to Lij Iyasu's pro-Central Powers stance. They facilitated his rise by providing troops and using him as a mediator. In September 1916, the Allied powers, particularly Britain and France, actively supported the coup d'état that deposed Lij Iyasu.
Ras Tafari then slowly but surely dismantled the decentralized power structure and created a centralized army and bureaucracy in his long years in power. Had Lij Iyasu won the power struggle, it is believed he would have promoted a multi-religious and decentralized political settlement.
During World War II, Emperor Haile Selassie allied himself with the Allied Forces, which included the United Kingdom, United States, and USSR, against the Axis Powers, which included Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, and Imperial Japan. Italy had invaded Ethiopia, forcing the Emperor into political exile. This alliance proved beneficial for the Emperor, as he regained power in 1941 with the support of the United Kingdom's military. This alliance further aided Haile Selassie; the Allied Powers submitted a report to the United Nations, stating that Eritrea lacked national consciousness and the economic means to sustain independence. Additionally, the US lobbied in favor of Ethiopia, and the UN endorsed the federation of Eritrea with Ethiopia.
The fall of Ethiopia’s Imperial system and the rise of a socialist regime were not isolated incidents. Instead, while domestic factors dictate changes, it was also heavily influenced by the changing world order. The decades after the Second World War were characterized by decolonization. The growing awareness among Ethiopians, particularly scholars and intellectuals, regarding anti-colonial struggles across Africa and the Global South fostered a heightened consciousness concerning Ethiopia's internal hierarchical power dynamics and economically exploitative systems. This exposure to Marxist, anti-colonial, and anti-imperialist discourse provided a framework for critical analysis, leading some intellectuals to conceptualize the southern and peripheral regions of Ethiopia as being in a relationship akin to internal colonialism. This perspective effectively challenged the legitimacy of the unitary and often idealized narrative of Imperial Ethiopia, thereby amplifying dissenting voices and contributing to the socio-political environment that ultimately facilitated the rise of a socialist regime in the 1974 revolution.
Similar to its rise, the fall of the Derg regime was also influenced by the changing global order. The Derg's primary patron, the Soviet Union (USSR), indeed experienced a decline in global influence culminating in its dissolution in 1991, marking the end of the Cold War. Simultaneously, armed groups opposing the Ethiopian central government, such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), astutely observed the shifting international political landscape and strategically adopted the language of Western-style liberal democracy. As a result, the armed groups seized power and redefined the country's social contract, while Eritrea seceded.
As I have briefly demonstrated above, although Ethiopian political actors have the agency and domestic political dynamics play their own roles, the global political landscape significantly influences regime changes, redefines political relationships, and the dominance of political actors. Internal political changes in Ethiopia are therefore likely to occur as a result of shifts in the global order. The nature of these internal changes will depend on the actions and alignment of political actors in response to the evolving international situation.
How is the Global Order Changing?
The global landscape is undeniably in flux, with compelling arguments for a changing world order fueled by the rise of powers like China and India, a perceived decline in US hegemony, challenges to the liberal international order, increasing geopolitical tensions, the growing influence of non-state actors, technological disruptions, and the assertive voice of the Global South.
The unipolar order led by the United States’ liberal democracy is now crumbling from the inside out. Trump’s administration decision to dismantle the US’s soft power, such as the USAID, and its trade war with the world, and most particularly with China, is speeding up the change into either a uni-multipolar order (a global system where there is one superpower with competing regional powers) or multipolar order (where multiple super powers competing each other) or one after the other.
The United States remains the wealthiest country, boasting a vast military might; therefore, it is likely to maintain its global hegemony for some time to come. However, China’s unparalleled and ongoing economic and technological advancements will inevitably undermine American economic dominance. Additionally, the emergence of new regional powers in the Middle East will create a possibility of a multipolar order.